PayPal holiday survey: spending plans are not completed sales

On 30 September 2026, PayPal published a holiday survey in which 58% of US respondents reported greater financial concern, while 64% expected to spend the same or more than a year earlier. Morning Consult surveyed 2,005 adults on 2–4 September, with a stated margin of error of ±2 percentage points. These are intentions from a US sample, not recorded holiday sales.

Concern and spending plans can coexist

A shopper can preserve a gift budget while becoming more careful about how to pay. For a merchant, demand and the completion of an individual order are different questions. One metric does not answer both. An encouraging spending intention should therefore not become an automatic conversion forecast or a justification for more aggressive payment incentives.

Consider a shopper comparing final totals across several stores. The relevant experience includes delivery, arrival timing, returns and the complete amount shown before confirmation, as well as the product price and available payment button. If those details appear too late, interest in the gift may remain while the purchase moves elsewhere. This is an operational hypothesis, not an effect measured by the survey.

The same distinction applies to instalments. Promotional language can make payment flexibility sound like guaranteed incremental revenue. A merchant still needs to observe completed orders, method costs and refund handling separately. A higher average order value alone does not establish better economics after all associated costs.

The sample also cannot automatically describe another country, a particular age group. Responses were collected in early September and may differ from decisions made during the holiday season. The release is more useful as an early planning signal than as a precise sales forecast.

Instead of importing a market-wide percentage into a revenue plan, compare it with the store's own funnel: visitors intending to buy, shoppers reaching the final price and customers completing payment. That turns survey sentiment into a testable hypothesis while preserving the distinction between what consumers expect to do and money the merchant actually receives.

What to check in checkout before peak season

The survey does not provide figures for a plan, but it points to parts of the funnel worth testing while traffic is still lower:

• Final total. Does the shopper see the full cost, including delivery and taxes, before the last step rather than after entering payment details?
• Payment method mix. Does it match the store's own audience, and does every method work on mobile devices?
• Approval rates. What share of authorisations is declined, and could stricter fraud rules during peak traffic push that higher?
• Instalments and deferred payment. What does the method cost once refunds are included, and how quickly does the store receive funds?
• Returns. Are gift return windows and conditions clear, and is support ready for more contacts after the season?
• Monitoring. Is there a daily report on payment conversion and errors, so problems surface within hours rather than weeks?

Risks and limitations

The main risk is treating stated intentions as commitments. People who feel financially stretched may delay decisions until the last days, hunt for discounts or abandon a purchase when unexpected costs appear. For a merchant, that suggests demand could shift towards the end of the season, so checkout and support resilience matter more than a sales curve drawn in advance.

A second risk is overly aggressive payment incentives. Discounts tied to a particular method or persistent instalment prompts may lift average order value while eroding margin and increasing returns. Any such incentive is best run as an experiment with a control group and a success metric defined beforehand.

Sources: PayPal holiday survey and methodology